Mandate Migration of UNSC? Middle-Power Brokerage and the Redistribution of Authority in International Law
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22061115Keywords:
multipolar, middle-powers, UN Security Council, mediation, international law, legal pluralismAbstract
The transition toward a multipolar order has intensified rivalry among the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). US-China competition is central, but Russia-West confrontation and US support for Israel also explain why the Council becomes paralysed in politically salient conflicts. This paper examines the resulting shift from UN-centred collective security to middle-power brokerage. It compares UNSC practice
concerning Syria, Ukraine and Palestine/Israel with mediation by Qatar, Turkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in Gaza, the Russia-Ukraine war and the 2026 US-Iran war. Through process tracing, structured comparison and doctrinal legal analysis, the paper distinguishes diplomatic effectiveness from legal authority. It argues that middle-powers increasingly exercise "process authority": they convene adversaries, frame bargains and support
implementation when the Council is blocked. They do not, however, inherit the Council's Charter authority. The emerging order is one of brokered legal pluralism – more responsive and sometimes life-saving, but also more opaque, selective and dependent on state leverage.
The analysis shows that middle-power diplomacy strengthens international law when it operationalizes existing obligations and remains institutionally embedded; it weakens law when political compromise obscures legal asymmetry, substitutes soft commitments for binding rules, or enables forum shopping.
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